For this video we will be focusing on a system which is called the “Boomerang”, now just a reminder that while this will be the last video tutorial of the series, we do use a total of 6 systems in our alerts system, so for those of you that are part of that service you also have access to that system as well, even further diversifying your portfolio of systems. We always hold one system back as our secret sauce but if you are a VIP, you WILL be getting the alerts and the unit allocation for that system as well.
This model is one of our proprietary recipes that we have tested the last few years with a tremendous amount of success. The model is built off of the ability to use the institutional information that we acquire from multiple sports books as a tipping point as to when we are going to place our investment or when we are not going to get involved.
This type of investing is called “Contrarian Investing”. Put quite simply, we wait to see where the public money is going and, if all of our other rules line up, we go the opposite way in order to secure a better price or, in this case, better odds as the bookmakers adjust to compensate for which way the public money is going.
Because of the available history of analytics used in this system, it is only backtested for four years, but in that time, the results have been incredible
On its own, Boomerang had an ROI of just under 87%% last year alone and if you would have invested just $1000 in this model four years ago and compounded your investment yearly, you would have just over $28,000 right now! ($28,391)
Now as I said in my book, there are only special circumstances that allow a system to be allowed into the method without a ten year model to back it up and this one checks all the boxes.
4 years of winning returns, with two years coming in at over 135%, and a decent pool of games to help with self correction, if there happens to be a bad run.
Let’s dive into the investment strategy and some of the history of the Boomerang
Now, while this system has never had a losing season in the model, there is still some volatility and and of course, some risk involved. As with all of our systems, measuring the risk is done by finding the worst drawdown period over the time of the model and padding that to compensate for future volatility.
With that in mind, Boomerang comes with a stop loss of 22 units on this particular trading pattern.
AThis is a bit of streaky system with its worst drawdown being 7 trades…we also take into account that we only have 4 years of data, so we use our proprietary risk management formula to pad our investment a bit and say that 11 is our max draw down. This protects us against the system having a dry period or bad run that we have not seen in previous models.
So the ScoreMetrics system recommends a 100 unit bankroll for all 6 systems and a 2 unit allocation for each play in the “Boomerang” system, and remember, the stop loss is 22 units, so if we reach the point of hitting 20 units of loss, this system stops for the rest of the season.
This system btw will normally only send out an average of about 34 alerts a year with 2 units invested into each alert, so missing one is crucial.
Let’s look at the last5 years of ROI
Now let’s dive into the actual system itself and give you all the information, so if you want to start looking for these alerts on your own, you can.
First of all, this would be a game played during the regular season. I do have packages that take care of the post season, but the patterns are totally different, as well as the analytics used to find those patterns. DO NOT try to use these during the post season. When I use the same models under those circumstances we do not get positive results.
Let’s start with the basics and tell you that this is an Over/Under investment, meaning that we are going to be using the total points scored in a game as our investment line. Right now I will remind you that we did write our handy guide for terminology that is available in the members section and if you do not know what an Over/Under is…just take a moment and look through your guide for all the information you need.
For this investment, we are looking an “under” investment, meaning that no matter what the score the bookmaker puts up, we will be investing in the score to be under that number.
So what is that number? The closing total we are buying at is between 6.5 and 11.5. No higher and no lower. This puts us in optimal position to make money on our pattern.
Now we start to dig and try to find games that match this system. We are looking for games where both teams are quite good. How good? Both the home team and the away team have winning percentages that are AT LEAST 51%.
Now we need to look for public gambling data. The ScoreMetrics Lab has access to these numbers with just a touch of a button and we use them to send out alerts in real time as they happen. The data we have access to is solid and tested and our institutional betting percentages are compiled from actual bets placed at several different sportsbooks across the web.
You will be able to find some of these same numbers by looking at your favorite sports book site, but, if your not part of the VIP Alerts Package and you are sourcing these yourself, we highly recommend you double or triple up and look at multiple sources. I know it sounds like a lot of work, but if it was easy, everyone would be doing it. =)
Anyway, we are looking for the the over/under money % to be between between 22% and 35%, which means that only 22%-35% of the Over/Under bets on the total are being placed on the under. The rest are on the over.
This is a double layered contrariant system so we use one more variable to make this the perfect recipe; The last thing we are looking for is the difference between money % and ticket % and we want it to be between 1% and 15%.
This is the difference between the percentage of dollars on a game and the percentage of bets on a game. So we want those numbers to be close, telling us that not only is a big percentage of the actual wagers going on the over but a large number of dollars as well. I know that sounds confusing, so let me break it down for you in a little more detail.
For example, using our prior number from above.
The formula is: Money % – Ticket %
We are looking for an Over/Under money percentage of 22%-35%.
So let’s assume that our team is getting 25% of the money %
And that the team is also getting 30% of the ticket %
25% Money % – 30% Ticket % = difference of 5%
Using the two formulas together shows us that not only is a lower percentage of the bets going on the under but so is a lower percentage of the total money. This should move the line in our direction. In fact, if you watch closely, most times these lines will move anywhere from a point to even two points in our favor.
Again, all of this information is available online at most of your favorite sports books and you can find it all by googling different terms looking for “public money”.
Ok. That wraps up 5 baseball training videos and i know it’s a LOT of information to take in because we are already at about 90 minutes of training, in videos alone for just baseball.
For those of you not using the VIP service, you have a lot of work in front of you, but before I had the team helping me, this is exactly the way I started all of this. I saw it as my path to investing in a market I enjoyed and that I could prosper from with very little worry of market crashes or recessions. It worked for me and I know it can work for you, if you put in the hours to make it.
I just want to remind everyone of one last thing and that is that I will be sending out emails constantly with more training and information and I have been looking into doing some live seminars for everyone on my list, so keep your eye out for more emails coming to you with lots more information.
Have a great time making money with ScoreMetrics!