For this video we will be focusing on a system which is called the “Humongous No More”. Let me start off by telling you that; this system was originally designed by me but modified by one of the guys in the ScoreMetrics Lab, aptly named Humongous.
For this video we will be focusing on a system which is called the “Humongous No More”.
Let me start off by telling you that; this system was originally designed by me but modified by one of the guys in the ScoreMetrics Lab, aptly named Humongous.
I originally created this model and one day, even though I asked him not to, Humongous started toying around with it and really turbo charged it. I wanted to be mad but….Well, if you take the risk of upsetting your boss, but you actually make him more money, then that is a win in my book. I love a Lab Geek with some balls.
Humongous No More has had one losing season in the last ten years.
On it’s own, Humongous Baseballs had an ROI of 126% last year and if you would have invested just $1000 in this model ten years ago and compounded your investment yearly, you would have $35,000 right now! That’s a sweet ROI of 3,434%.
Keep in mind that our models are all now backtested at least ten years, in most cases, with several sets of historical data used to ensure their reliability. The ScoreMetrics lab is held to high standards, with a personal guarantee from me; I would never put a system into ScoreMetrics that I would wouldn’t use myself.
Now, with that being said, I do want to remind everyone that all investments come with risk. I always advocate a non emotional investment strategy which you can do quite simply. Only invest what you can afford to lose in any investment that you take on.
I also want to mention to everyone that is a member of our VIP service that you will be getting Alerts sent to you through email and text messages almost every day during baseball season.
You DO NOT have to learn these systems if you are part of the VIP service because we do all the work for you, but if you are a member,and are interested in how we build these systems and source these alerts, then these videos are a must watch.
Normally in this part of the video I will outline our investment strategy and talk about the historical risks and rewards that each system can give us.
Now, while this system has only had 1 losing year in 10 years, there is still some volatility and and of course, some risk involved. As with all of our systems, measuring the risk is done by finding the worst drawdown period over the time of the model and padding that to compensate for future volatility.
Throughout the ten year model, this system has a maximum draw down of 4 trades. A drawdown in sports trading is a loss or an incident that affects your bankroll negatively, so there have been times throughout seasons where there have been 4 losses in a row or 3 losses in a row, followed by a win, then two more losses.
Don’t let the losses affect your state of mind. It’s a stock you invested in. Sometimes it goes up and sometimes it goes down.
If you are going to dedicate yourself to the ScoreMetrics method, you won’t think of it as a loss. That is what a gambler thinks of and you are not gambling. . You will just think of it as a decline in an investment. You are dedicated to investing 100 units to the ScoreMetrics Method with a stop loss of 28 units on this particular trading pattern.
Anyway, the worst drawdown is 4 trades, so we pad our investment a bit and say that 7 is our max draw down. This protects us against the system having a dry period or bad run that we have not seen in previous models.
So the ScoreMetrics system recommends a 100 unit bankroll for all 6 systems and a 4 unit allocation for each play in the “Humongous No More” system.
This system btw will normally only send out an average of about 19 Alerts a year with 4 units invested into each alert, so missing one is crucial.
The five year ROI breakdown is this system is
Now let’s talk about the actual system itself and give you all the information, so if you want to start looking for these alerts on your own, you can.
First of all, this would be a game played during the regular season. I do have packages that take care of the post season, but the patterns are totally different, as well as the analytics used to find those patterns. DO NOT try to use these during the post season. When I use the same models under those circumstances we do not get positive results.
The next thing we are going to be looking for is a closing money line that falls between -140 and -105. That is the price we are looking for. No more. No less. If you go outside that price point the pattern falls apart. This also means that we are investing in mostly favorites.
We are also looking for a CLOSING moneyline, which means that this play needs to be executed at the appropriate time, which is as close to game time as possible. I normally log in a few hours before the game time for baseball.
We also want our team to have the advantage of playing at home. So if the team is the NY Yankees they need to be playing in NY at Yankee Stadium.
Now come the details. We are looking for a team that is on a losing streak of -2 games going up against a team that has a winning streak of 2 – 5 games. These numbers are important so if you are trying to find your own trades instead of following the alerts for some reason, you must make sure you find games that fit the profile.
Now, unlike a lot of other sports, in baseball, teams will play each other 3 or 4 games in a row, which is normally referred to as a series.
We are looking for all the variables above to fall into place with one more instrument to use. The game must be the third game in the series, meaning the teams have already played twice in a row before this.
The last thing I will mention is that the game needs to be in the regular season. The analytics in these models are tested for the regular season only. I can tell you right now that these systems have all been tested for the playoffs and NONE are recommended.