Let me start off by telling you that; this is the flagship baseball system in this year’s portfolio. So why do I love this system so much?
In addition to the Holy Grail system being one of the first systems I ever discovered…in ten years, the Holy Grail model has never had a losing season!
ScoreMetrics is the reason I live the life I do now and it’s the reason why I am sharing this with you today. Now I am going to be going into my office and doing a screenshare so that I can deep dive into the details of this system. As always I encourage a way to take notes so you can absorb everything in the best possible way.
Keep in mind that our models are backtested at least ten years in most cases, with several sets of historical data used to ensure their reliability. The ScoreMetrics lab is held to high standards, with a personal guarantee from me; I would never put a system into ScoreMetrics that I wouldn’t use myself.
Now, with that being said, I do want to remind everyone that all investments come with risk. I always advocate a non emotional investment strategy which you can do quite simply. Only invest what you can afford to lose in any investment that you take on.
I also want to mention to everyone that is a member of our VIP service that you will be getting Alerts sent to you through email and text messages almost every day during baseball season.
You DO NOT have to learn these systems if you are part of the VIP service because we do all the work for you, but if you are a member and are interested in how we build these systems and source these alerts, then these videos are a must watch.
When I send you a trade alert, please keep in mind these are often time sensitive.
It is also important that you don’t miss a trade and that you make sure that you are getting the price at the price that the alert tells you to get it at. DO NOT buy at a price that is outside of the specified acceptable range. The lines can move fast on games that are nationally televised so be aware of the line changes and make sure you get the price you want.
Now you are probably asking yourself why I just said a few of the things I just said. Let me break it down for you really quickly.
Q: why must we make these trades as soon as they are sent to us?
A: the answer is a bit complex and you will see it layed out better when I show you the system build, but basically this is one of our systems that is built off of institutional market knowledge. We run what we call a contrarian technique approach in this particular system.
A common misconception is that a bookmaker is making odds in order to win the money that you invest in each play. Nothing could be further from the truth and that is why using the contrarian technique works so well.
The technique works on the basis that the bookmaker makes the odds on each game with a single purpose in mind – to achieve an even payout risk on both sides of the bet.. The job of a good bookmaker is to make your investment work against someone else’s, while they take a form of commission, called the vigorish (Vig for short).
Think about this way…if the line on the Marlins vs Mets is a pick’em that means you can take either team and put up $1.10 to make $1. If the sportsbook can get exactly the same amount of trades picking the Mets as it does the Marlins then it will pay $1 to the winner and keep $1.10 from loser, thereby achieving a $.10 profit for the sportsbook. I talk about this more in the A to Z Guide that is available in the members section and, if you have never wagered before in your life I HIGHLY recommended reading it before you go further. I know it’s a lot of information to grasp but knowing the language of the industry can only help you in your search for any great investment.
Now why is this system special?
By using the institutional information that we have access to, we can see where the money is being placed and then watch the odds to see if they change to our favor. Just hang on tight and I will show you exactly what I mean.
Let me address the second part of what I said earlier.
Q: Why should you make every trade without exception? Is it ok to skip a few?
A: Simply put, the answer is no. You should never skip a trade in this system. Again, if you didn’t read my book and skipped right ahead to this part, I really think you should read the book. It’s a must read to understand the reason behind all these methods, techniques and systems I am teaching you.
If you have already read it and just need a refresher course, let me just dial you in right now.
Each system is developed around a backtested model that has found a pattern that has been going on for some time. Unlike other sports or investment gurus that tell you they know exactly what time the sun will shine and what time it will set, I prefer to be honest and tell you that each pattern is both predictable and unpredictable.
With each system we know that, if the pattern runs long enough, we should get positive returns. We just don’t claim to know which results will happen when. In other words, with ScoreMetrics, I won’t tell you that this is my “TRADE OF THE YEAR” or other such rhetoric. ScoreMetrics is a data driven system that follows the patterns that the models uncover. We don’t invest in a single game, but instead in a pattern of games that history has shown to have a higher probability of winning.
Hence we need to play each alert the system gives us at the proper investment amount in order to maximize our profits. We aren’t gambling. We are investing in widgets and we have no emotional connection to widgets. We just follow the pattern.
Now normally in this part of the video I will outline our investment strategy and talk about the historical risks and rewards that each system can give us.
Now, while this is a system that has not had a losing model in 10 years there is still some volatility and and of course, some risk involved. As with all of our systems, measuring the risk is done by finding the worst drawdown period over the time of the model and padding that to compensate for future volatility.
Throughout the ten year model, this system has a maximum draw down of 4 trades. A drawdown in sports trading is a loss or an incident that affects your bankroll negatively, so there have been times throughout seasons where there have been 4 losses in a row or alternatively, a scenario such as 3 losses in a row, followed by a win, then two more losses.
Don’t let the losses affect your state of mind. It’s like a stock you invested in. Sometimes it goes up and sometimes it goes down.
If you are going to dedicate yourself to the ScoreMetrics method, you won’t think of it as a loss. That is what a gambler thinks of and you are not gambling. . You will just think of it as a decline in an investment. You are dedicated to investing up to 100 units to the ScoreMetrics Method with a stop loss of 42 units on this particular trading pattern.
Anyway, over the 10 year period the worst drawdown is 4 trades, so we pad our investment based on our proprietary risk assessment formula and determine that 6 is our max allowable draw down, which is where we stop ourselves out from the system. This protects us against the system having a dry period or bad run that we have not seen in previous models.
The ScoreMetrics system recommends a 150 unit bankroll for all 6 systems and a 6 unit allocation for each play in the “Holy Grail” system.
This system btw will normally only send out an average of 14 Alerts a year with 6 units invested into each alert, so missing even just a single trade is crucial.
These are the systems ROI’s for the system over the last 5 years
Now let’s talk about the actual system itself and give you all the information, so if you want to start looking for these alerts on your own, you can.
First of all, this would be a game played during the regular season. I do have systems that take care of the post season, but the patterns are totally different, as well as the analytics used to find those patterns. DO NOT try to use these during the post season. When I use the same models under those circumstances we do not get positive results.
The next thing we are going to be looking for is a closing money line that falls between +110 and +220.
That is the price we are looking for.
No more. No less.
If you go outside that price point the pattern falls apart.
We are also looking for a CLOSING moneyline, which means that this play needs to be executed at the appropriate time, which is as close to gametime as possible. I normally log in about 20 minutes before the game times.
Now come the details. We are looking for a team that has lost recently. They will be on a one, two or three game losing streak. Again, not a four game losing streak or some other number. This is like baking a cake. Follow the recipe exactly.
Now your going to be looking at the other team, and what you want to find is that the other team has a winning % of at least 66%. So your play is going up against a really good team.
The game will be a non-divisional game. So the teams are not overly familiar with each other
The last variable we are looking for is the spread %. This is the percentage of spread bets on the team. We use ScoreMetrics proprietary betting percentages compiled from actual bets placed at 6 sportsbooks on the web. What we are waiting for is that between 9% and 25% of the spread bets being placed on the game are being placed on our team.
Again this is a closing number, or a number that is only really available as a final number towards game time. Hence the alerts coming in late.
Below all these training videos there is a breakdown of the historical performance of each system along with the unit allocation and stop loss so you won’t forget the information along the way. I will also be sending out emails a few times a week talking about our methodology and continuing the education as we go along.
I am really excited that we have so many new members to our ScoreMetrics VIP club. Here is to you guys. Wishing you continued success with all your investments this year and beyond.