Welcome to another ScoreMetrics members video.
For this video we will be focusing on a system which is called the “Joey Chestnut”.
Let me start off by telling you that; this system was not part of the 2019 portfolio of system, but this super pattern was discovered back in 2017 and has been part of my secondary portfolio of systems that I monitor personally.
This system was always a tough one to leave out of my main portfolio because, aside from one strange year, this system has been the model of consistency, knocking out great ROI’s year after year.
Joey Chestnut has had one losing season in the last ten years and, in an effort to have full disclosure with you guys, it was 2011 and it was a -50% loss. One of the worst years any ScoreMetrics system has ever had.
On it’s own, Joe Chestnut had an ROI of 74.4% last year and if you would have invested just $1800 in this model three years ago and compounded your investment yearly, you would have $10,620 right now! That’s a sweet ROI of 589.97% in just 3 years.
Keep in mind that our models are all now backtested at least ten years, in most cases, with several sets of historical data used to ensure their reliability. The ScoreMetrics lab is held to high standards, with a personal guarantee from me; I would never put a system into ScoreMetrics that I would wouldn’t use myself.
Now, with that being said, I do want to remind everyone that all investments come with risk. I always advocate a non emotional investment strategy which you can do quite simply. Only invest what you can afford to lose in any investment that you take on.
I also want to mention to everyone that is a member of our VIP service that you will be getting Alerts sent to you through email and text messages almost every day during baseball season.
You DO NOT have to learn these systems if you are part of the VIP service because we do all the work for you, but if you are a member, and are interested in how we build these systems and source these alerts, then these videos are a must watch.
Normally in this part of the video I will outline our investment strategy and talk about the historical risks and rewards that each system can give us.
Now, while this system has only had 1 losing year in 10 years, there is still some volatility and and of course, some risk involved. As with all of our systems, measuring the risk is done by finding the worst drawdown period over the time of the model and padding that to compensate for future volatility.
Throughout the ten year model, this system has a maximum draw down of 9 trades but it is an outlier that happened one time, in the worst year the system performed; 2011.
Because this one season is not indicative of an average season for The Joey Chestnut, we also look for the next greatest draw down, which is 5, so we can compare the two and make sure that 9 isn’t a number we see frequently in this trading system. It isn’t so we feel safe moving forward, saying that 9 is our max draw down, but that we confidently feel like we won’t see that again.
By the way, a drawdown in sports trading is a loss or an incident that affects your bankroll negatively, so there have been times throughout seasons where there have been 4 losses in a row or 3 losses in a row, followed by a win, then two more losses.
Don’t let the losses affect your state of mind. It’s a stock you invested in. Sometimes it goes up and sometimes it goes down.
If you are going to dedicate yourself to the ScoreMetrics method, you won’t think of it as a loss. That is what a gambler thinks of and you are not gambling. . You will just think of it as a decline in an investment. You are dedicated to investing 100 units to the ScoreMetrics Method with a stop loss of 18 units on this particular trading pattern.
Anyway, the worst drawdown is 9 trades an staying true to this number protects us against the system having a dry period or bad run that we have not seen in previous models.
So the ScoreMetrics system recommends a 100 unit bankroll for all 6 systems and a 2 unit allocation for each play in the “Humongous No More” system.
The five year ROI breakdown is this system is
Now let’s talk about the actual system itself and give you all the information, so if you want to start looking for these alerts on your own, you can.
First of all, this would be a game played during the regular season. I do have packages that take care of the post season, but the patterns are totally different, as well as the analytics used to find those patterns.
DO NOT try to use these during the post season. When I use the same models under those circumstances we do not get positive results.
The next thing we are going to be looking for is a closing money line that falls between 126 and 149. That is the price we are looking for. No more. No less. If you go outside that price point the pattern falls apart. This also means that we are investing in mostly underdogs, so even if your win % isn’t great, when we win, the payoff is really nice.
We are also looking for a CLOSING moneyline, which means that this play needs to be executed at the appropriate time, which is as close to game time as possible. I normally log in a few hours before the game time for baseball.
We also want our team to have the advantage of playing at home. So if the team is the NY Yankees they need to be playing in NY at Yankee Stadium.
Now come the details.
This is a non division game, and as with all the rules, it is important to make sure the trades you have are ones that follow this rule. No divisional games here please or you crack the super pattern.
The next two metrics we will be looking for are OPS.
OPS is an acronym for On-base Plus Slugging and is simply the team’s on-base percentage added to the team’s slugging percentage.
We are looking for our team, the home team who is an underdog, to have an OPS between 0.69 and 0.84
And we are looking at OBS when we are looking at the team we are playing as well and we want their OPS to be between 0.73 and 0.77.
This super pattern seems simple but it has been winning consistently for many years, hitting off with a win % of 54.3% over the last ten years alone. That is an impressive super pattern for underdogs.