For this video we will be focusing on a system which is called the “Far Right”.
Now despite the name, this one has zero political affiliation. In fact, anyone can use it and have the same kind of success. I originally created this model based off the theory that we used to talk about when I played high school baseball. My coach at the time used to say that certain umpires would call the game a certain way.
Some would call more strikes and some would call more balls. The truth was that it was high school so sometimes the umpires would be fat and too lazy to bend over so the strike zone would change because of it.
But it got me thinking and once I started really building systems it got me looking into the numbers. And what I really discovered was that most umpires call balls and strikes with the same frequency in the major leagues, but there is something that we stumbled on in our research that has helped us build the system “far right”.
You see, it seems that when there is a right handed pitcher and left handed pitcher pitching in the same game, hitters sometimes have trouble adjusting, but do you know who has even more trouble?
If you guessed Umpires, you hit it right on the nose. I will tell you more about that later. First let’s go into the good stuff about Far Right.
Far Right is a bit different from most of our systems in the ScoreMetrics system in that we only go back 4 years in the analytics trail to get our data. Umpires are changing from year to year so a longer data chain skews the numbers. This four year sample keeps all the umpires we selected for the process in the same testing group and lets us pick out the ones who are the best investment.
On it’s own,Far Right had an ROI of a whopping 176% last year and if you would have invested just $1000 in this model four years ago and compounded your investment yearly, you would have almost $28,000 right now! That’s a sweet ROI of 2,879%. I really love this system.
Now, with that being said, I do want to remind everyone that all investments come with risk. I always advocate a non emotional investment strategy which you can do quite simply.
How? Only invest what you can afford to lose in any investment that you take on. It’s really that simple and it the best lesson I can teach in these video classes.
Now normally in this part of the video I will outline our investment strategy and talk about the historical risks and rewards that each system can give us.
Now, while this system has never lost in the 5 years of the model, there is still some volatility and and of course, some risk involved. As with all of our systems, measuring the risk is done by finding the worst drawdown period over the time of the model and padding that to compensate for future volatility.
Don’t let the losses affect your state of mind. It’s a stock you invested in. Sometimes it goes up and sometimes it goes down.
If you are going to dedicate yourself to the ScoreMetrics method, you won’t think of it as a loss. That is what a gambler thinks of and you are not gambling. . You will just think of it as a decline in an investment. You are dedicated to investing 150 units to the ScoreMetrics Method with a stop loss of 18 units on this particular trading pattern.
Anyway, the worst drawdown is 5 trades, so we pad our investment a bit more than normal because the data only goes back 5 years, and say that 9 is our max draw down. This protects us against the system having a dry period or bad run that we have not seen in previous models and ads even more insulation because of the length of time used to collect the analytics.
So the ScoreMetrics system recommends a 150 unit bankroll for all 6 systems and a 2 unit allocation for each play in the “Far Right” system.
This system btw will normally only send out an average of about 24 Alerts a year with 2 units invested into each alert, so missing one is crucial.
Now let’s talk about the actual system itself and give you all the information, so if you want to start looking for these alerts on your own, you can.
First of all, this would be a game played during the regular season. I do have packages that take care of the post season, but the patterns are totally different, as well as the analytics used to find those patterns. DO NOT try to use these during the post season. When I use the same models under those circumstances we do not get positive results.
Let’s start with the basics and say that we are looking for a matchup where there is a left handed pitcher against a right handed pitcher. We are going to want to invest in the right handed pitcher for this one. So you know, only about 30% of the pitchers in Major League Baseball are left handed so there are some umpires that have trouble adjusting the sitelines needed to keep the same strike zone.
Who are those umpires? The 9 men you see on the screen right now. Write them down and keep that information to yourself. It could be worth a lot of money.
What we do next is try to find value in our trades. The closing moneyline is between 110 and 300, which means that this system is all underdog picks on the money line. It means you are getting great odds so each win could be up to three times your investment when they win.
We are also looking for a CLOSING moneyline, which means that this play needs to be executed at the appropriate time, which is as close to game time as possible. I normally log in about 20 minutes before the game times.
Now there is one last thing that we need to make this recipe complete. We are looking for a closing total of 7.5 to 9.5. A closing total is the numbers that the bookmaker assigns to a game as the amount of runs that will be scored between both teams. 7.5 to 9.5 is a high number so these are normally high scoring games. In a high scoring game you want the advantage and this model gives us one.